There’s just something about cowboy boots on a red carpet that’s gonna do it for me every time.
Luckily for country music fans like me, the 2025 CMA Awards are quickly approaching on November 19 at 8 pm, live from the Bridgestone Arena. Marking the 59th anniversary of the awards, this show has pretty much become my version of fantasy football. There’s a certain thrill of sitting on your living room couch, shouting out your picks at the TV screen for every category. While there’s no real reward, of course, aside from the satisfaction of judging everyone’s outfits in your week-old pajamas and the joy of guessing a few winners correctly, it’s become my own tradition.
Per usual, once the CMA nominations drop in early September, there are some surefire trends that immediately emerge: the same lot of artists and songs double-dip across multiple categories. Die-hard country fans have long critiqued the awards for being an inaccurate representation of the genre’s diverse scene. With that in mind, be prepared to watch a show centered around celebrating Nashville’s mainstream radio scene.
The decision process for this award show goes beyond the typical fan-powered voting. Rather, a panel of the Country Music Association’s members, including over 7000+ industry professionals, go through three rounds of balloting, which breaks down the nominees, five finalists, and the final winners. This year is no different, with 12 awards to be announced and a string of performances from some of the hottest names in the genre right now, including Luke Combs & BigXthaPlug, Miranda Lambert & Chris Stapleton, Megan Moroney, Zach Top, Lainey Wilson, Red Clay Strays, and the list goes on.
While Lainey Wilson returns as the sole host this year, I’ve got a few predictions of my own to present.
Entertainer of the Year
- Luke Combs
- Cody Johnson
- Chris Stapleton
- Morgan Wallen
- Lainey Wilson
With such an all-encapsulating category and five A-list names who all have legitimate claims to Entertainer of the Year, almost any prediction feels fair. However, considering Morgan Wallen was last year’s unexpected wild-card winner after being snubbed from pretty much every award show for quite some time, it’s hard to believe that he would reign as the king two years in a row. Not to mention his silence regarding both his nomination and his 2024 win only adds to that skepticism. It is hard not to wonder if this lack of acknowledgement may leave a negative impression on the voting panel despite his tremendously successful year.
As for Cody Johnson and Chris Stapleton, despite being personal favorites, they also feel like the less likely contenders this time around.
Given her whirlwind year of touring (pun intended) and undeniable impact across the industry, I have a strong feeling that Lainey Wilson will reign as the cowgirl of this male-dominated rodeo. It’s no hidden secret that Wilson is a CMA favorite; after all, she is the face of the show, the 2023 Entertainer of the Year, and 2024 Female Vocalist of the Year. I have a feeling she’ll keep that momentum going on Thursday night.
Album of the Year
- Am I Okay – Megan Moroney
- Cold Beer & Country Music – Zach Top
- F-1 Trillion – Post Malone
- I’m The Problem – Morgan Wallen
- Whirlwind- Lainey Wilson
It’s so exciting to see 2024 New Artist winner, Megan Moroney, have her album included among this year’s Album of the Year nominees. While this recognition is a fantastic stepping stone towards a surefire future wins for the hexa-nominated artist, it likely isn’t her year to take home the trophy.
The same goes for Zach Top, another newer face on the leaderboard. The Country Music Association would be remiss not to acknowledge the fact that Top had an almost unheard-of skyrocket to fame within just a year of his debut album, Cold Beer & Country Music. It is actually insane the cataclysmic shift Top caused in the genre via that album and the notoriety he gained as the face of the ’90s country revival. Nonetheless, it is more plausible that the nod to Top will come elsewhere throughout the night
Among the five nominees, Morgan Wallen’s I’m the Problem had no doubt a massive momentum since its May release and continued to be a prevalent fan favorite throughout the year. While judges may lean towards Lainey Wilson, if Wallen were to walk away with any award of the night, it would justifiably be in this category. Sure, the voters may have qualms about his personal character, but you can’t refute the outstanding triumph of this album.
I can pretty much guarantee that, either way, his appearance at the show is bound to be nonexistent, especially following his recent comment while performing at the Ryman with Ella Langley: “It takes a lot more than an awards show to get me out to Broadway these days, I’ll tell you that.”
Female Vocalist of the Year
- Kelsea Ballerini
- Mirand Lambert
- Ella Langley
- Megan Moroney
- Lainey Wilson
Miranda Lambert is no stranger to the title of Female Vocalist of the Year, having won it six consecutive times from 2010 to 2015. In recent years, however, that winning streak seems to have been passed down to powerhouse Lainey Wilson. She’s held the title for the past three years, and while these other ladies certainly have the chops to snatch that away, it’s hard to imagine that the “Somewhere Over Laredo” singer won’t extend her streak to four years in a row.
There’s a slight chance that Megan Moroney’s standout year could also classify her as a top contender. Between her highly successful Am I Okay tour, surge of trending attention, and a rapidly growing cult fanbase, it would make sense that the voting panel would throw a curveball here. Still, given that it is only her second year being nominated in this category and Wilson’s stature as one of the genre’s most dominant female voices, the bell-bottom queen remains the safe pick.
Male Vocalist of the Year
- Luke Combs
- Cody Johnson
- Chris Stapleton
- Zach Top
- Morgan Wallen
This is another category where there’s truly not a bad pick. Unfortunately, the thing you’ll come to learn time after time is that “vocalist” doesn’t truly refer to who has the best voice, range, or delivery. Rather, it’s more like an extension of Performer of the Year, just gender-specific. With that in mind, while some may question how brilliant singers like Chris Stapleton could be edged out by more distinctive voices like Wallen, anything is possible.
That said, if I had to delegate, my heart is going out to Luke Combs. After all, the singer-songwriter is being highlighted as one of the top performers of the night and is set to deliver a live duet with rapper BigXthaPlug of their recent collaboration, “Pray Hard.”
Vocal Group of the Year
- Lady A
- Little Big Town
- Old Dominion
- Rascal Flatts
- The Red Clay Strays
Not much has changed this year in this category, with some classic picks like Lady A, Little Big Town, and Old Dominion making the list again. Unfortunately, given that there is such a limited number of bands that break through in mainstream country, these picks pretty much always tend to stay fairly consistent.
We’re starting to see some fresh diversity, though, with The Red Clay Strays making their second consecutive appearance. The biggest mix-up this year is Rascal Flatts replacing Zac Brown Band on the list of nominees. Despite being the “new addition,” their nomination could very well lead to a win, thanks to their re-emergence this year with the re-release of their reboot album. Compared to the other groups, Rascal Flatts had the most mainstream exposure, content, and presence. Or maybe it’s just been me who has been blasting “Fast Cars and Freedom” with Jason Aldean on repeat…
Vocal Duo of the Year
- Brooks & Dunn
- Brothers Osborne
- Dan + Shay
- Maddie & Tae
- The War and Treaty
It looks like the voting board was not feeling particularly adventurous this year in their picks for the Vocal Duo category, but then again, this is a pretty limited niche in country music. I think out of the current loot, it’s a dead giveaway to Brooks and Dunn once again. When it comes to award shows, these two firecrackers are almost guaranteed to take anything with the word “duo” in the title, and for good reason; they’re country music icons. Beyond that, though, none of the other potential picks have as much pull in the genre currently, and unfortunately, wild cards like The War & Treaty are too unique to take home the prize.
New Artist of the Year
- Ella Langley
- Shaboozey
- Zach Top
- Tucker Wetmore
- Stephen Wilson Jr.
In my mind, there’s a 99% chance that this award will go to Zach Top. This year has been pure Zach Top mania, and his meteoric rise to becoming a household name makes him a clear frontrunner for New Artist of the Year. Interestingly, though Ella Langley has more nominations overall this year, leading me to wonder if she could pose some competition.
Langley’s been a high flyer throughout 2025, not just for her duets with Riley Green but also for her own recent releases like the highly successful single, “Choosin’ Texas” (which unfortunately was released too late to be considered in this year’s voting process). I’m curious to see if she still needs more time to establish herself as a solo act before taking home an award like this. If the rumors are true and she does drop a 2026 album, I can see the upcoming year beckoning her full-on rise to stardom.
Single of the Year
- “4x4xU” Lainey Wilson
- “Aint No Love in Oklahoma” – Luke Combs
- “Am I Okay?” – Megan Moroney
- “I Never Lie’ – Zach Top
- “you look like you love me” – Riley Green and Ella Langley
If there’s a phrase that perfectly describes this category, it would, without a doubt, have to be “earworms”. I’ve had all of these songs stuck in my head for weeks straight at a time, and for that, I applaud the voting panel’s picks. While “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” is a strong contender thanks to its massive popularity and boost from the Twisters movie, I can’t help but get the feeling that Ella Langley and Riley Green’s “you look like you love me” will be stealing the show again this year. Despite winning Musical Event of the Year previously in 2024, I don’t think its run is over, and there’s still plenty of room for more praise for this viral sensation.
Song of the Year
- “4x4xU” Jon Decious, Aaron Raitiere, Lainey Wilson
- “Am I Okay?” – Jessie Jo Dillon, Luke Laird, Megan Moroney
- “I Never Lie’ – Carson Chamberlain, Tim Nichols, Zach Top
- “Texas” – Johnny Clawson, Josh Dorr, Lalo Guzman, Kyle Sturrock
- “you look like you love me” – Riley Green, Ella Langley, Aaron Raitiere
I personally cannot tell a lie, this may be a bit of a biased pick, but I truly believe that Zach Top deserves at least one win, given his extensive influence and prominence this year. However, I know that’s a bit of a stretch given he’s so new to the stage. From a songwriting perspective, “you look like you love me” deserves to be recognized for its witty and charming storyline. However, “4x4xU” is likely to take the award, given the CMA’s strong support for Wilson. Alongside writers Jon Decious and Aaron Raitiere, they managed to find a completely new spin on the truck trope of country music, and for that, we have to applaud them.
I could probably name about a hundred songs that would have been a better fit than Blake Shelton’s “Texas”, but that’s a rant for another brooding comment section.
Musical Event of the Year
- “Don’t Mind If I Do” – Riley Green (featuring Ella Langley)
- “Hard Fought Hallelujah” – Brandon Lake with Jelly Roll
- “I’m Gonna Love You” – Cody Johnson (with Carrie Underwood)
- “Pour Me A Drink” – Post Malone (feat. Blake Shelton)
- “You had to Be There” – Megan Moroney ft Kenny Chesney
Honestly, this feels like a wild card category. It’s interesting to see the evolution of “Don’t Mind If I Do” take the spot previously held by last year’s winning Riley Green and Ella Langley duet, “you look like you love me.” Nonetheless, none of these five nominees feels like a clear frontrunner. Given that Post Malone’s album charted well and generated a brief burst of excitement surrounding it, I think it makes sense that if they were going to give any recognition to the project, it would come through this category.