Predicting the 2023 CMA Award Winners

It’s time to hand out some hardware.

Last week the Country Music Association announced their full list of nominees for the 2023 CMA awards. Luke Bryan and Peyton Manning are set to return to host the show for the second straight year after the duo helped the ceremony to its highest ratings since 2019. The winners won’t be announced until the show airs in November, but it’s never too early to speculate on who will bring home the hardware. Here are my predictions for who will take home gold in the major categories (as well as my personal picks).

BREAKING NEWS: The 2023 #CMAawards nominees are officially announced!

Mark your calendar to watch Country Music's Biggest Night on Wednesday, November 8 at 8/7c on @ABCNetwork where winners are revealed LIVE! pic.twitter.com/NPwHvGszfv

— CMA Country Music (@CountryMusic) September 7, 2023

Entertainer of the Year

Nominees:

• Luke Combs
• Chris Stapleton
• Carrie Underwood
• Morgan Wallen
• Lainey Wilson

Winner: Lainey Wilson

Wilson paced the field this year with 9 nominations, and I expect her to clean up. 2023 was a breakout year for Lainey that saw her notch three top ten songs on country radio. There hasn’t been a female Entertainer of the Year since Taylor Swift won in 2011, but this is the year that changes.

My Pick: Morgan Wallen

I love Lainey, but Morgan has been on a tear in 2023 that no one can really compete with. One Thing at a Time was the year’s biggest album event in all of music, let alone the country scene, and his current stadium tour has sold out some of the most iconic venues in the country. He’s the biggest star in country music, and that’s not a title he’ll be letting go of anytime soon.

Single of the Year

Nominees:

• Fast Car– Luke Combs
• Heart Like a Truck– Lainey Wilson
• Need a Favor– Jelly Roll
• Next Thing You Know– Jordan Davis
• Wait in the Truck– Hardy feat. Lainey Wilson

Winner: Fast Car- Luke Combs

Combs has long been a staple at the CMA’s, taking home three wins last year and nine since his debut in 2017. Combs’ cover of Fast Car has been a juggernaut, and the added love for Tracy Chapman’s original version should push it past a loaded field.

My Pick: Fast Car- Luke Combs

Call me basic if you have to, but the song got to number one for a reason. Combs’ deep country voice brings such a unique spin to a timeless classic that I can’t help but love it. While I’m at it, check out his original cover from 2021.

Album of the Year

Nominees:

• Ashley McBryde Presents: Lindeville- Ashley McBryde
• Bell Bottom Country- Lainey Wilson
• Gettin’ Old- Luke Combs
• One Thing at a Time- Morgan Wallen
• Rolling up the Welcome Mat- Kelsea Ballerini

Winner: One Thing at a Time- Morgan Wallen

The Association’s hesitation in acknowledging Wallen has never been a secret. Believe it or not, he has just one CMA award to his name, way back in 2019 for New Artist of the Year. This feels like a chance to right that, given the success of One Thing at a Time.

My pick: Gettin’ Old- Luke Combs

I won’t argue with taking Morgan here, but when it comes to albums sometimes less actually is more. 36 songs was ambitious, and it feels like he could’ve trimmed back to 24 and still made a quality record. There isn’t one second of waste on Gettin’ Old, and it might be Combs’ best record, top to bottom, to date.

Song of the Year

Nominees:

• Fast Car- Luke Combs,
• Heart Like a Truck- Lainey Wilson,
• Next Thing You Know- Jordan Davis,
• Tennessee Orange- Megan Moroney,
• wait in the truck- HARDY feat. Lainey Wilson

Winner: wait in the truck- HARDY feat. Lainey Wilson

Song of the Year tends to lean less on popularity and more on artistic merit than Single of the Year, and wait in the truck fits that criteria. The song has been a hit on country radio, peaking at number two, and the more serious and somber tone gives it a leg up on the field.

My Pick: wait in the truck– HARDY feat. Lainey Wilson

My first reaction was to wonder how this song was eligible for this year, but it snuck in with a late release date in 2022. It’s one of the darker songs to get a nomination, but there’s no denying the songwriting prowess from HARDY and company, and Lainey was the perfect choice for the duet.

Female Vocalist of the Year

Nominees:

• Kelsea Ballerini
• Miranda Lambert
• Ashley McBryde
• Carly Pearce
• Lainey Wilson

Winner: Lainey Wilson

Megan Moroney’s nomination snub for this category was a bit of a surprise, but Lainey is the obvious choice. In a year that has seen her star power take off, this feels like perhaps the easiest pick of the year. This would mark back to back years taking home this award for Wilson.

My pick: Lainey Wilson

We’re on the same page here. Lainey all but lapped the rest of the ladies this year, and she isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. The only artist with a potential challenge is the aforementioned Moroney, whose non-inclusion here might be the biggest snub of the year.

Male Vocalist of the Year

Nominees:

• Luke Combs
• Jelly Roll
• Cody Johnson
• Chris Stapleton
• Morgan Wallen

Winner: Luke Combs

Either Combs or Stapleton have won this award every time out since 2015, and don’t expect that to change this year. Stapleton hasn’t released a lot of new music as of late, so I’ll give the nod to Combs here, but don’t be surprised if Stapleton’s national anthem performance at Super Bowl LVII steals him the award.

My pick: Jelly Roll

I love Luke and Chris, but it’s time for some new blood in this category. Jelly Roll is one of the best stories in country music this year, and he has the pipes to back it up. Son Of A Sinner deserved more recognition.

New Artist of the Year

Nominees:

• Zach Bryan
• Jelly Roll
• Parker McCollum
• Megan Moroney
• Hailey Whitters

Winner: Zach Bryan

The Association hasn’t always been kind to independent artists (just ask Cody Johnson), so it’s no surprise that Bryan received just a single nomination despite doing nothing but setting the country world on fire over the last year and a half. Now that he is signed with Warner Records, he has the chance to be an award show mainstay for years to come, and I think he starts that this year.

My pick: Zach Bryan

This one feels obvious. He probably would’ve been my pick for Entertainer of the Year as well, if he were up for the award. His lack of nominations is frustrating, given his massive success recently, but he’s my clear pick out of this year’s rookie class.